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Month: August 2010

by Maggie Chandler Maggie Chandler No Comments

What will Vancouver Real Estate do next?

As usual, everyone has an opinion about the future of Vancouver’s real estate market! That includes the home buyers and home sellers, the economists, the banks, the news media and of course most Realtors. But it’s all a guess, no-one can foretell the future, but here is the current buzz on Vancouver’s real estate market

Globe and Mail just published an article saying the future is far from clear because house prices are still higher than they were a year ago. On the other hand, month over month sales have been on the downturn since June.  Some forecasters predict prices to drop over the next two years , followed by years of stagnation. The Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives describes housing bubbles as being rare in Canada but sees a possibility that the big six Canadian cities , including Vancouver, follow the sharp downturn Vancouver had in 1994.  Historically Canadian house prices have stayed in a narrow range of 150,000 to 220,000 inflation adjusted dollars, once outside of that range they are more susceptible to rising interest rates. They point out that a US style house correction is the most extreme scenario. Secondly, when the US economy recovers, this will benefit Canada and interest rates will then rise. That likely means today’s prices won’t be sustainable once interest rates begin to climb quickly. In conclusion they feel a correction of 9-21% may be in order. Read more

by Maggie Chandler Maggie Chandler No Comments

Bayshore Drive Condos in Vancouver’s Coal Harbour Well Supplied

Vancouver’s Coal Harbour boasts a small, luxury neighbourhood on the waterfront. Bayshore Drive consists of seven condo buildings, of which two are on the waterfront and they are all surrounded by beautiful gardens and contain suites primarily over 1000sf.

Currently there are 35 condos listed for sale, ranging in price from $916,000 for 1481sf with no view, on the second floor, to a Penthouse listed at $4.4M, which is one of four condos listed over $4M. There are only 4 listings under $1M, 22 listed between $1M and $2M, 4 between $2M and $4M. The average $psf is 1,042.

July saw 5 sales from $1,090,000 to $1,630,000 and August had 3 sales, from $560,000 for 877sf to $1M for 1185sf. Average days on market for the 8 solds were 85 and 861 was the average $psf. Sale price to list price ratio was 96%. Approx nine months of inventory, which has increased by one month since May. Read more

by Maggie Chandler Maggie Chandler No Comments

3 Year Fixed Rate or 3 Year ARM?

Many buyers of Vancouver real estate ask this question and it is not an easy one to answer because no-one can predict interest rates.

The average prime rate from Jan 1, 2000 to Dec/09 was 4.94%, with a high of 7.50% and a low of 2.25%. Generally speaking strong economies and high interest rates are tied. Today we are in a weak global economy so we are experiencing low interest rates. The question remains when will interest rates rise and how quickly?

If you assume Prime will increase by .25% every 4 months, beginning in Jan’11 and given that the 3 year ARM is tied to Prime, then a 3 year fixed rate would be cheaper for the consumer. You can now get a 3 year fixed rate at 2.9% and a 3 year ARM at 2%. But at the end of 3 years the ARM rate would be 4%, given the .25% rise every 4 months and prime would be 5%, which is its 10 year average. Read more

by Maggie Chandler Maggie Chandler No Comments

Canada Home Sales Moving back to Historical Markers

Canada existing home sales activity totaled 33,959 units in June, down 8.2% from the previous month as sales trend back toward the 20 year average. This departure from the seasonal norm is considered by some to be the effects of changes to mortgage regulations and rising interest rates that caused buyers to act in April that would have otherwise done so at a later date.

 

The national average home price slid a slight 1.2% to $342,661 in June from a month ago, but remains 4.9% above year-ago levels. Now that home prices have fallen back in line with the 30-year historic appreciation rate of 5.5%, economists and industry experts expect prices to increase at a slower rate as the market balances.

The number of months of inventory measures the amount of time it would take to sell all the homes on the market at the current pace of sales if no new homes become available. There were 6.9 months of inventory in June, which is close to the level seen in March of 2009. Fewer new listings are expected to enter the market over the coming months, which should continue to stabilize the balance between supply and demand.

source: CREA, CMHC

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by Maggie Chandler Maggie Chandler No Comments

Do Older Vancouver Condo Buildings Appreciate Well?

I often get this question from Vancouver condo buyers. They are concerned about the possible special assessments and building repairs that are required for older buildings. Some buyers will select newer buildings and settle for less space, so as to have the 2/5/10 year BC Home Warranty.

I just did an analysis of Kits condo buildings for a current buyer client and compared the sales of condos between $300,000 and $400,000 from January to July 2009 and the same for 2010. Here’s what I found.

In 2009 sales in buildings from 0-5 years old averaged $551 psf. Buildings from 5-10 years old averaged $537psf and buildings over 10 years averaged $520psf.

In 2010 sales in buildings from 0-5 years old averaged $683psf. Buildings from 5-10 years old averaged $602psf and buildings over 10 years averaged $563psf.

Condo buildings under 5 years appreciated $132psf in that time period, whilst buildings 5-10 years old appreciated $65psf and the buildings over 10 years appreciated $43psf.  These figures are an average and don’t take into consideration any specifices , such as location, amenities, etc.

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by Maggie Chandler Maggie Chandler No Comments

What Vancouver Real Estate Is Selling the Best in July 2010?

So what is selling in the current Vancouver real estate market and what price range sells the best?

Taking a look at July’s sales we see a total of 354 Vancouver west side transactions in condos  and 60% of those were under $500,000 and 10% were over $1M. The one and two bedroom suites were selling about the same, with 167 one bedrooms and 158 two bedrooms, 14 three bedrooms and 15 studios. Average days on market was 50 and list price to sale price ratio was 97%. Average sale price $555,774 and average $psf was 627. Read more

by Maggie Chandler Maggie Chandler No Comments

Luxury Vancouver Real Estate

July saw only 3 sales of luxury Vancouver condos over $2M, down from 11 in June which was the best month for 2010 so far.  The highest sale price being $4.3M.  Price range between $2M and $3M is the most supplied. Average days on market jumped from 54 to 88 and a total of 155 listings with 94% list price to sales price ratio. A whopping 52 months of inventory (up from 25 in March). 2009 looks like the best year so far for Vancouver luxury condo sales.  A strong buyer’s market. Read more

by Maggie Chandler Maggie Chandler No Comments

Vancouver Real Estate Analysis for Downtown

dt-graph-pic

Vancouver’s Downtown real estate analysis in July saw listings drop  but still considerably higher than  what they were a year ago and lower than Jul’08.  Condos that didn’t sell and got delisted are the highest for the year. Sales were down to 102, the second worse month for the year after Feb but higher than Jul’08.   Average days on the market up to 48.  Average sale price down to $450,000 and average $psf $614, equal to Feb’08 and Aug’09 . Sale price to list price ratio flat at 97%.  Supply up to 7 months, highest for the year.  $300,000 to $400,000 selling the best. Downtown remains a good buyer’s market. Read more

by Maggie Chandler Maggie Chandler No Comments

Home Buyers in the Driver’s Seat

From BCREA

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province declined 42 per cent to 5,784 units in July compared to the same month last year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, MLS® residential unit sales in the province declined 19 per cent in July from June 2010. The average MLS® residential price climbed 6 per cent to $491,832 in July compared to the same month last year.

“A relatively large number of homes for sale have created the most favourable supply conditions for home buyers in more than a year,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. MLS® active residential listings were 21 per cent higher in July than at the start of the year on a seasonally adjusted basis. However, with newly listed MLS® residential units now declining, tighter market conditions may emerge this fall.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume increased 16 per cent to $24.2 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales rose 4 per cent to 48,127 year-to-date, while the average MLS® residential price climbed 13 per cent to $504,281 over the same period.

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by Maggie Chandler Maggie Chandler No Comments

Vancouver Real Estate Analysis for Olympic Village

The Olympic Village is Vancouver’s last waterfront community.  Vancouver real estate statistics for False Creek South (Olympic Village) saw July listings flat and sales grind to a halt with only 2 reported on MLS for the month. Average days on market jumped to 53 and  average sold price $542,3000. Average $psf  $596.. Sale price to list price ratio 98%. Read more

by Maggie Chandler Maggie Chandler No Comments

Vancouver Real Estate Analysis for West End

West End real estate analysis saw July saw  listings down again and sales flat, compared to the previous month.  The days on the market for condos that sold increased only 46. The average selling price is $505,874 , leaving March the highest for the year.   70% sold under $500,000, resulting in a challenging market for sellers in higher price ranges.  A 4.6 month supply, equal to Mar’09. but over $1M the supply is 10 months.  The list price to sale price ratio increased to 97% .  There remains solid value in this neighbourhood and bottom end buyers seem to recognize this, as the number of sales remains consistant. Read more

by Maggie Chandler Maggie Chandler No Comments

Vancouver Real Estate Analysis for False Creek North

False Creek North real estate analysis for July saw listings drop, having peaked in May and now on par with May’08 when the inventory was rising.   Sales flat at 34, which is lower than Jun’09 but higher than Jun’08.   A whopping 80% of solds were under $1M.  The listings that didn’t sell and came off the market is the second highest for the year at 30 and this may be why the inventory is dropping.   A drop in inventory to 5.6 months. Condos over $1M not doing well.  Days on the market increased 62, which is the second highest for the year but same as Jun’09.  Average $psf 732 and sale price to list price ratio flat at 95%. Read more

by Maggie Chandler Maggie Chandler No Comments

Vancouver Real Estate Graphs

vanwestsold1

VanWestsold2

Above are the July Vancouver (west side) real estate graphs  for houses, townhouses and condos.Dollar Volume is down in all categories.  Listings now decreasing in all categories and sales also lower, compared to June. Read more

by Maggie Chandler Maggie Chandler No Comments

Vancouver Real Estate Graph

avgGraph

The  graph for Greater Vancouver real estate shows the average price of Greater Vancouver homes, townhomes and condos.  The graph shows the houses on the top, townhomes (middle) and condos (bottom) average price from 1977 to present.  The Vancouver market peaked in 1981, 1989,1993 and 2008. Vancouver real estate didn’t appreciate much between 1994 and 2002 but it did between 2002 and 2008. Then it dropped about 20-25% and surpassed the highs of 2008 r in late 2009/early 2010 but are now decreasing. Read more

by Maggie Chandler Maggie Chandler No Comments

Vancouver Real Estate Analysis for Coal Harbour

Coal Harbour real estate analysis for July saw listings drop for the first month this year, since peaking in April and now at the same level as Fall’08.  Sales nearly tripled from June which was the worst month of the year so far.    60% of sales were under $1M,vs 55% in Jun, vs 66% in May , 70% in April, 60% in Mar & 80% in January. No sales over $1.6M, clearly the luxury market is not doing well, with 97 listings over $1.6M and no sales for that group.  Days on market dropped to 65.  Sale price to list price ratio up to 96%.  Currently 32 listings at  Fairmont Estates and 5 sales this year, with  prices from $788,000 for 730sf to $8M for a sub-penthouse.  Clearly a good buyers’ market.

Listings -247  – 42% listed under $1M, 27% listed between $1 and $2M and 31% listed over $2M. Read more

by Maggie Chandler Maggie Chandler No Comments

Vancouver Real Estate Analysis for Kitsilano

 Kits condos in July saw listings dow 14% from June and the fourth consecutive month listings have decreased.   July sales flat at 33, equal to Jun’08, and supply down to 4 months vs 1.6 months in Dec’09.  Days on market increased from 27 to 39.  Average $psf down to 581 and average sold price also down to $425,000.  sale price to list price ratio flat at 98%.   A whopping 70% of sales under $500,000,  up from 60% in April and 50% in March.  Average sold price now equal to Jun’09.  Average sold priced peaked in Sept’09.  15% of the listings came off the market.

Vancouver reflections – Kits market coming back into balance. 39 days to sell a property is still pretty good and only 4 months of inventory but a bottom end market. Read more

by Maggie Chandler Maggie Chandler No Comments

Vancouver Real Estate Analysis for Coal Harbour Townhomes Vs. Condos

A client for a Coal Harbour condo recently asked me how the townhouses in the neighbourhood appreciated, compared to condos. I did an analysis for him and here’s what i found.

Townhomes:

In 2010 there have been 4 sales to date. Average sale price/psf 812. Average days on market 74.

In 2009  there were 14 sales, from $1M to $3.1M. Averaged sale price/psf 861.  Average days on market 73.

In 2008 there were 4 sales, from $1.2M to $4.7M. Average sale price/psf 915. Average days on market 49

In 2007 there were 7 sales, from $1.1 M to $3.3M. Average sale price/psf  914 . Average days on market 58

In 2006 there were 6 sales, from  $1.1M to $3.5M.  Average sale price/psf 964. Average days on market 44. Read more

by Maggie Chandler Maggie Chandler No Comments

Greater Vancouver Listings and Sales Drop in July

Home sales activity in Greater Vancouver was quieter last month than most Julys over the past decade, with residential sales, prices, and the number of homes listed for sale trending downward in recent months.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that the number of residential property sales in Greater Vancouver totalled 2,255 in July 2010. This represents a 45.2 per cent decline from the 4,114 sales in July 2009, the highest selling July ever recorded, and a 24.1 per cent decline compared to June 2010.

Looking back further, last month’s residential sales represent a 3.7 per cent increase over the 2,174 residential sales in July 2008, a 41.8 per cent decline compared to July 2007’s 3,873 sales, and a 17.5 per cent decline compared to July 2006’s 2,732 sales. Read more

by Maggie Chandler Maggie Chandler 2 Comments

BC Home Sales to Rise in 2011 – BCREA

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its Housing Forecast Update for the third quarter of 2010 today.

BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales are forecast to decline 7 per cent from 85,028 units in 2009 to 79,500 units this year, before increasing 5 per cent to 83,400 units in 2011.

“The volatility in consumer demand characteristic of the past 24 months is expected to give way to more gradual improvement through 2011,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Housing demand has fallen back to earth from its break-neck pace at the end of 2009 and is expected to more closely match overall economic performance over the next 18 months.”   

A larger inventory of homes for sale has created the most favourable conditions for home buyers in more than a year,” added Muir. “However, the buyers’ market is expected to be short-lived as total active listings peaked in May and are beginning to wane, with more balanced conditions set to emerge in the fall.”

The average MLS® residential price is forecast to climb 6 per cent to $492,800 this year and remain relatively unchanged in 2011, albeit declining by 1 per cent to $489,500. Read more

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